By 2050, under the Baseline scenario, global steel production becomes significantly more geographically diverse, shifting away from its 2021 concentration in Northeast Asia. Production grows notably in Southeast Asia, South Asia (especially India), the Middle East, Africa, and South America. In Europe, China, and the U.S., most domestic steel facilities transition to recycling using electric arc furnaces (EAFs).

When comparing three climate policy scenarios—Narrow Club, Broad Club, and Broad Club Fossil Fuel Ban—four consistent trends emerge for 2050. First, primary steel production spreads more evenly across the globe, with growth across Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Second, the dominance of coal-based Basic Oxygen Furnace steelmaking (BF-BOF) declines significantly. Third, steel recycling through EAF-SCRAP rises sharply. Lastly, there’s substantial growth in green steel production, including methods using imported green iron (EAF-PRIMARY) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI-H2-EAF). These developments suggest a broad global shift toward cleaner, more sustainable steelmaking technologies across all modeled policy futures.