Work in progress
Net-Zero Steel Pathways
2024
By 2050, under the Baseline scenario, global steel production becomes significantly more geographically diverse, shifting away from its 2021 concentration in Northeast Asia. Production grows notably in Southeast Asia, South Asia (especially India), the Middle East, Africa, and South America. In Europe, China, and the U.S., most domestic steel facilities transition to recycling using electric arc furnaces (EAFs).
When comparing three climate policy scenarios—Narrow Club, Broad Club, and Broad Club Fossil Fuel Ban—four consistent trends emerge for 2050. First, primary steel production spreads more evenly across the globe, with growth across Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Second, the dominance of coal-based Basic Oxygen Furnace steelmaking (BF-BOF) declines significantly. Third, steel recycling through EAF-SCRAP rises sharply. Lastly, there’s substantial growth in green steel production, including methods using imported green iron (EAF-PRIMARY) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI-H2-EAF). These developments suggest a broad global shift toward cleaner, more sustainable steelmaking technologies across all modeled policy futures.
The Narrow Club scenario illustrates the impact of climate club policies implemented exclusively by high-income countries, specifically the EU/EEA, the USMCA trade zone, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Members of this climate club apply trade protection policies, including a 30% tariff on steel imports from countries outside the club and a greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity-based tariff, similar to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), to equalize carbon prices on imported steel to match those within the club. Additionally, club members provide a subsidy of $100 USD (2020) per tonne to support green iron production, representing both domestic policy support and potential foreign investments. Internally, high-income club members implement carbon pricing or equivalent policies beginning at $100 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) in 2022, increasing to $300 per tCO₂e by 2050. Countries outside the club pursue less aggressive decarbonization efforts, characterized by carbon pricing or equivalent measures starting at $30 per tCO₂e in 2022 and rising to $100 per tCO₂e by 2050.
Geospatial of Steel Production in Narrow Club

BF-BOF | Blast Furnace with Basic Oxygen Furnace | |
DRI-COAL-EAF | Direct Reduction of Iron with Coal, followed by Electric Arc Furnace | |
DRI-GAS-CCS-EAF | Direct Reduced Iron with Natural Gas, followed by Electric Arc Furnace, 90% of CO2 is Captured and Stored | |
DRI-GAS-EAF | Direct Reduced Iron with Natural Gas, followed by Electric Arc Furnace | |
DRI-H2-EAF | Direct Reduced Iron with Green Hydrogen, followed by Electric Arc Furnace | |
LTAE | Ladle-Treatment and Alloying Equipment | |
EAF-SCRAP | Electric Arc Furnace used with Scrap | EAF-PRIMARY | Electric Arc Furnace used with Green Iron / Hot Briquetted Iron |
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Main countries' results (s1)






























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Detailed countries' results
Please select a scenario, an indicator and a country (or area).
Total steel produced by technology type, expressed as a percentage of the total manufacturing fleet.

